Guest post by pollster Brad Bannon, of Bannon Communications Research.
The victory of
initiatives in Florida and Nevada in
2004 to raise the minimum wage is a strong indication of the success that
Progressives can have in 2006 pushing a populist economic agenda.
Thomas Frank argued convincingly in his bestselling book, What’s the Matter with Kansas, that Democrats have lost the support of blue
collar voters because the party that has compromised its positions on economic
issues so much that it is difficult for working class voters to tell the
difference between the two parties on key bread-and-butter issues. According to
Frank, the lack of difference between the parties on economic issues has led
blue collar voters to support Republicans because of their comfort with the
GOP’s positions on social issues like gay marriage.
The 2004 Election Day exit poll supports Frank’s thesis.
Voters in middle income households ($30,000-$50,000) split right down the
middle between Bush and Kerry. The Democratic Party and the Progressive Movement
need to do a lot better with these financially squeezed voters. These barely
middle class voters were not rich enough to benefit from the Bush tax cuts and
their financial situations have grown worse in the last year and a half.
Despite the conservative spin that President Bush is not
getting enough credit for improving the economy, the marketplace is a mess and
the time is right for Progressives to build on the good work they started with
the successful minimum wage initiatives that they won in 2004. The August 5th
edition of the Wall Street Journal was an eye opener. Political reporter, John
Harwood wrote that despite rosy economic projections “wage increases lag behind
despite low unemployment, and high gas prices dampen consumer spirits”. On the
same day that Harwood’s article appeared in the WSJ, the paper ran this
headline which reflected consumer unease: “U.S. retail Sales Wilt in July.”
And finally the bible of corporate America reported that Exxon/Mobil
had churned out “a record profit of $25.3 billion last year as oil prices
soared.”
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